Category Archives: Western NC Mountain Communities

Sapphire Jumbo Mortgage Outlook Continues to Brighten

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“The Jumbo Jungle” may sound a little like the elephant compound in a wild animal park, but it’s actually a seldom-quoted tab under The Wall Street Journal’s online Real Estate section. The “jumbos” being discussed are the trunkless kind—the hefty mortgage loans whose center rings are found in binders instead of circus tents.

Judging from the latest discussions Sapphire homeowners will find lately, these jumbos aren’t about to become endangered anytime soon. For one thing, 2015 registered the highest activity for the behemoth loans ever. This year’s follow-up, according the WSJ, will be unlikely to slow the pace.

The reason behind the jumbo mortgage market’s strength has a lot to do with the down stock market. Last week ended with another swoon, led by the tech stock sector. Investors were thought to have been worried by some poor earnings performance and a general “realization that the world is slowing.”

According to Inside Mortgage Finance, jumbos accounted for a full fifth of all mortgage lending last year—the highest percentage of the market since 2002. Sapphire residents looking to borrow in the high end market may also find a variety of interested lenders as asset investment dollars shift into real estate as “a safer investment.”

It was widely held that the market dip made it more likely to momentarily halt any rise in interest rates. By week’s end, mortgage rate research website HSH.com marked another drop in conforming rates, as well as the “Federal Reserve’s apparently more cautious position with regard to raising interest rates.” That “apparently” was probably well-advised, given industry experts’ recent history of hit-and-miss prognosticating.

Nonetheless, the Jumbo Jungle writers boldly headlined “WHAT’S AHEAD FOR JUMBO-LOAN BORROWERS in 2016.” Their answer was increased likelihood for jumbo loan interest rates holding below 4% “…for a while longer, which also could make borrowing large sums more attractive.” Going further, JJ quoted one mortgage sales manager suggesting that the fear of eventual rate rises could spur a “home buying frenzy” in the spring, adding to a rush of refinancing by adjustable-rate borrowers reaching the end of their fixed-rate terms.

Sapphire jumbo loan applicants won’t have to be in any kind of a ‘frenzy’ to take advantage of today’s continuing low rates and a general move toward an easing of credit score requirements. I’m glad to help point my clients toward the most active local lending resources—those that consistently provide sound service to Sapphire homeowners.

New Survey Could Reveal Highlands Real Estate Attitude Shifts

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Any way you cut it, real estate makes up a huge chunk of the overall economy. One consequence of that is that the health of the real estate industry is constantly being put under a microscope (if it were a human patient, it would probably grow alarmed by all the doctors and specialists constantly calling it in for routine check-ups).

Everyone from Washington regulators to Highlands tradespeople look to the performance of residential real estate as one of the most meaningful indicators of how everything else is doing. Locally, it’s not surprising that the pace of real estate sales in Highlands always seems to align with many other area business prospects as a whole.

Probably because that’s true in most places, the National Association of Realtors® has come up with a new way to poke and prod the patient. It’s called the “HOME Survey”— ‘HOME’ being an acronym for “Housing Opportunities and Market Experience.” This is a somewhat strained way to describe the purpose, which is to find out how typical consumers feel about residential real estate in general, and homeownership in particular.

Instead of being another dry collection of statistics, this survey could turn out to be a lot more revealing than many others because it is going to be measured every month from now on—then reported every quarter. Even though it will be conducted nationally, I’m guessing that Highlands real estate trends could well turn up here, since it is the changes in attitude that will become apparent.

Anyway, the first survey results are in—so we have a baseline we can use for comparison. These first findings reveal some very positive findings. Among them:

Percentage of renters who want to become homeowners: 83%
Percentage of households believing homeownership is a good financial decision: 88%
Percentage of households who believe owning a home is part of their own American Dream 87%

Since ‘The American Dream’ is such a generalized term, the survey attempts to nail down which features of owning a home are the most appealing. The three leaders are, “A place to raise a family” (36%); “Owning a place of your own” (26%); and “A nest egg for retirement” (14%).

It should be interesting for Highlands real estate watchers to compare future findings with that baseline—and to see if local attitudes reflect the same kind of shifts. In any case, if your own feelings about home ownership match those findings, you can easily begin your own made-to-order version of a Highlands “Housing Opportunities and Market Experience.” Just call me!

Highlands Appraisals: by Definition, Part Art, Part Science

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Built into the way a Highlands home changes ownership is the institution of the appraisal report—the document which attempts to place a dollar value on the property in question. That word “attempts” is the key when it comes to appraisals. Although it would make life easier if Highlands appraisals consisted of completely objective, scientifically verifiable calculations, in the real world, they can’t be.

Highlands appraisals are created by locating comparable properties that have sold recently on the open market, then adjusting that dollar amount to reflect the differences between them. That’s where perfect objectivity becomes…um…subject to interpretation.

If only any two homes were exactly the same in every detail, the latest price paid for one would be the best appraised value for the other. But even in the best case—say, two tract homes built at the same time with exactly the same features—their appraised values probably wouldn’t be exactly the same. After all, they can’t occupy the same plots, and one location might be preferable. They might not have the same maintenance history, so one might be in better condition than the other. The landscaping could differ greatly…and so on.

This is the reason why adjustments need to be made—and why the skill of the appraiser is so important. (I’m tempted to say that’s why appraisers get the big bucks; but in fact, our Highlands appraisers’ fees are actually quite reasonable). Details on how they go about finding fair value for those adjustments is the subject of a recently revived investigation done by CoreLogic’s Jon Wierks. For anyone who finds themselves relying on local appraisals to validate an asking price (or the home loan that will allow a sale to close), the report makes for interesting reading.

The focus of the piece was to elaborate on which adjustments are most influential in creating appraisals. By analyzing more than a million sample appraisals made between 2012 and 2015, the study determined which features had the greatest impact on the resulting evaluations. They disregarded any feature that didn’t appear on at least 10% of the reports—and came up with the most important features. If this were the Oscars, we’d now say, “the envelope, please”:

Most frequently adjusted: LIVING AREA (no surprise here; square footage almost always differs).

Runner-up: ROOMS (that is, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms).

Greatest value adjustment: QUALITY RATING (the average adjustment came in at a not inconsiderable $15,000!).

Runner-up: OVERALL CONDITION.

These findings underline truly how important the skill and experience of the appraiser turns out to be, since the greatest dollar amount impact depends on the more subjective criteria. That’s even before taking into account that three free-form factors appeared in more than 10% of the appraisals. These miscellaneous factors, given the mysterious names “Other1, Other2, and Other3,” reinforce how unclassifiable are the differences between most properties and their closest comparable neighbors.

When it comes to Highlands real estate, I aid in every aspect of the process. I hope you’ll think of me (and definitely give me a call!) when the time to buy or sell approaches.

What’s More Important to Sapphire Renters than Interest Rates?

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You’d think that the single most influential factor governing a potential Sapphire home buyer’s decision on whether to buy now or hold off would be the ongoing bottom line—that is, the amount of an anticipated monthly mortgage payment.

Maybe not.

The New York Federal Reserve argues otherwise. Not just a little bit otherwise; “dramatically” otherwise.

To cut to the chase (and that’s a good idea, for reasons that we’ll get to later), what is more likely to impact that decision—especially for those who are currently renters—is the size of the down payment. It follows that Sapphire home renters are more likely to be encouraged by any relaxation of down payment requirements than they are to be discouraged by a rise in mortgage interest rates (with the resulting increase in the monthly payment).

Upon reflection, the Fed’s finding isn’t so surprising. The slow-motion economic recovery and stall in wage growth has made it tougher than ever for the average Sapphire home renter to scrape together a traditional 20% down payment. That would be why the FHA began to loosen down payment requirements (they started doing that in late 2013).

The details of the NY Fed’s study—Survey of Consumer Expectations—involved asking respondents how they would react to different home-buying scenarios. They measured the resulting “WTP”: Willingness to Pay, and found out…well, they found out a number of complicated things that we can leave for the statisticians to figure out—but one that stands out is that for renters (and we could easily imagine many of our own Sapphire home renters are among them), the amount of a proposed down payment is much more important than the interest rate. Everyone who has ever lived with an income that’s about equal to their expenditures understands why: rent money spent gets you nowhere, mortgage payments are different. They represent, in part, retained value.

The reason that earlier we immediately cut to the chase was because the language in the study itself is part English, part FedSpeak (a language created by Fed spokespersons for the apparent purpose of foiling attempts to decipher meaning). For example:

“…since there is generally no exogenous variation in these variables that is independent of confounding factors (such as economic conditions or household characteristics), it is difficult to cleanly estimate these sensitivities empirically.”

Thankfully, that study was accompanied by a summary. The upshot for us is that the current hard-to-predict mortgage interest rate ups and downs may not be as important a WTP influence (at least where the Sapphire home renter population is concerned) as we might assume. What are always keys for swaying potential buyers are objective pricing, proper presentation, and energetic marketing. I can help with all of those—so call me!

Sapphire Homeowners’ Equity Resurfaces after ‘Underwater’ Stint

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Looked at from one perspective, there has been a “bailout” of enormous magnitude. Okay—maybe you have to expand the meaning of “bailout” just a bit, but if you do, many Sapphire homeowners can be counted among the most prominent beneficiaries. We Sapphire real estate agents wouldn’t be complaining, either. As bailouts go, it’s the least controversial in a long time—probably because there are no politicians involved (so they aren’t quarreling about who’s responsible for what).

The colloquial term “bailout” has become a household word of late. “Bailout” comes from a straightforward nautical solution for a sinking ship: grab a bucket and bail as fast as you can. The odds of success increase if you can also stop more water from pouring in. Wikipedia’s definition is “providing financial support to a company or country which faces serious financial difficulty.”

It’s no exaggeration to say that after the last decade’s financial meltdown had driven residential real estate prices into the basement, many Sapphire homeowners faced, if not actual “financial difficulty,” at least the threat that it might be on the way. If the amount outstanding on their mortgage was greater than their home’s market value, they were said to be “upside down.” Since bailing and buckets don’t have much effect on a boat that’s upside down, perhaps that’s why another term gained prominence.

They were “underwater.”

The coincidence of maritime imagery couldn’t be more apt. During the underwater days, if you were a Sapphire homeowner wanting to sell or refinance, more likely than not the outcome left you feeling swamped. The banks were inundated with foreclosed properties. The market was flooded with bank auctions. Property values sank…

But finally, rays of sunshine broke through the storm clouds. The floodwaters receded, etc. etc. etc., until today, when CoreLogic has just come up with some buoyant metrics about the current unambiguous state of the nationwide turnaround. A huge amount of equity has returned to the residential real estate market. The increase in homeowner equity in owner-occupied homes is now $6 trillion since mid-2011—$1.3 trillion in the last 12 months alone!

If that is a type of bailout, it’s one accomplished through the free market, powered by consumers reversing the previous distortion. CoreLogic’s figures include the good news that 92% of homeowners no longer bear the burden of being “underwater.” A relatively short while ago, among those who didn’t own their homes outright, that designation tainted nearly a quarter of the nation’s homeowners.

For several years now, the return of high and dry Sapphire homeowner equity has meant a more stable and blessedly predictable marketplace. Right now, some excellent property offerings—not to mention historically low mortgage interest rates—make this a propitious moment to call me to take a look at all that’s available!

Highlands Agent Wonders What Is It about Real Estate and Threes?

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When you go searching for the latest Highlands real estate news online, as likely as not you will find the lion’s share is dominated by advertisements (not to complain: I advertise, too) and the current Highlands listings. There is rarely any true Highlands real estate news as such—since what’s ‘new’ is principally the arrival and departure of the latest batch of Highlands homes for sale.

All the other nuggets of Highlands real estate “news” are actually news’ first cousins: features about real estate—most of which deal with the age-old verities of the field rather than anything that is truly up-to-the-moment new. The other day, while hunting down the latest Highlands real estate goings-on, as usual, our national Realtors’® web site kept coming up. This is not unusual, since our organization is one of the most active trade organizations in the country, quoted often right here. But one of the features stood out, and I clicked on it.

The video in question was brand new last week: “3 of the Dumbest Home Loan Mistakes You Can Make”—a fairly irresistible title. The three were: don’t lie; don’t buy an expensive auto while applying; don’t use an out of town lender who doesn’t know the market, and don’t skip getting a second opinion (I know that’s four, but I threw in ‘don’t lie’ myself, since that’s the dumbest of all).

Once you begin looking around for interesting real estate videos, what really stands out is how many of them are lists. Apparently people (including people like me) find it hard to resist titles that promise to list things. That could be because everyone is curious about other peoples’ opinions of what’s important…and how important (what’s first and what’s last).

At any rate, a quick scan of the titles among the real estate videos revealed something that would be hard to guess. Not only are there a whole lot of lists—there are a whole lot of them whose list stops at three. Top 3. Best 3. Dumbest 3.

There were 3 Secret Tips to Winning a Bidding War; 3 Tough Conversations Sellers Can Avoid Having with their Realtor; 3 Insider Hacks for Staging Your Home; 3 Home Improvement Projects You Shouldn’t Do Yourself; 3 Sneaky Ways to Make Your Kitchen Look Expensive (declutter and clean; replace hardware; and fix fixtures…the only ‘sneaky’ thing about this list was the title).

All of those were on that single Realtors’ web site! And when you start looking around everywhere else, you come up with an avalanche: 3 Things to Consider Before You Pull the Trigger on Real Estate; The 3 Things Real Estate Marketers Can Learn from Black Friday; 3 Things Poker Can Teach You About Real Estate (no surprises there: “weigh risk vs. rewards;” “know the odds;” “pay attention to the human factor”); 3 Things to Know Before You Buy Your First Home (these three weren’t very illuminating: “get preapproved;” “save up”; “consider your lifestyle when house hunting”).

It was tempting to try to see if the Top 5 lists were even more numerous, or the Top 10; but by then the clock had already run out on the Real Estate List Research project. There are more than three items to act on when you decide to sell your Highlands home, or begin looking for your next. For a dependably good start, begin with Item #1: call me!

You are the Ultimate Sapphire Real Estate Agent Recruiter

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A sizeable portion of the recruiting business has gone online, and a lot of small and medium-sized businesses are using them. We hear a lot of ads for them—promising job hunters an efficient way to distribute their resumes; promising business managers an efficient way to attract new talent.

Busy Sapphire business managers are assured they’ll snag quality candidates to fill their open positions by simply filling out an online form describing their job vacancies. Some even promise to deliver the resumes of dozens of candidates almost overnight (if not actually overnight!) using their online job-hunting database systems. What is left unsaid is what personnel professionals know to be the most important next step in the recruiting process: the interview.

If you are wondering what this has to do with you and Sapphire real estate, the answer is just about everything! If you are selling your home or condo (and are among the nearly 90% of people who team up with a real estate agent to help get it done), your choice of agents makes you a personnel manager. You are the CEO of your own home selling enterprise; you’re the boss. And all experienced business owners will verify that just collecting resumes and leafing through them is not good enough. Not when you’re looking for top talent.

It takes some winnowing; some qualifying; the willingness to make judgement calls. There are books written about effective approaches to interviewing, but you don’t have to have a business or psychology degree to select a Sapphire real estate agent you can have confidence in. And you don’t have to devote days to the process, either. There are a couple of pointers about the interview, and a shortcut to the whole process:

First, once you have picked out the names of a few Sapphire real estate agents whose qualifications seem to fit the bill, give them a call. Be clear and honest about where you are in the process, and let them know you are pre-interviewing. You can do this over the phone. Let them present their qualifications briefly—and then get down to business.

1 Ask them for the names and phone numbers of two former clients and two current clients.
2 Then call the clients (be sure to thank them for their time at the end of the calls).

You’ll find out as much (probably more) this way than you would through hours-long conversations with the real estate agents themselves. By the time you have their clients’ feedback on how well they provide marketing materials, handle buyers, and stay in touch, you’ll be a local expert on Sapphire’s real estate agents.

Once you determine which ones have the ‘A’ ratings, it will be time to sit down and have a couple of in-depth interviews—the kind that tell you how well you mesh on the extremely important personal level. By then, you’ll have the satisfaction of having done a most professional job of selecting your agent who (I hope) is me!

When a Home Doesn’t Sell, Two Rules before Listing Again

2-1-16-listingsSuppose you had done everything right: interviewed several Highlands real estate agents and compared what they told you; prepped your property to near-perfection before the professional photographer’s arrival; confirmed all the descriptive details before they appeared in the Highlands listings…yet six months later, the place still hadn’t sold.

Your agent had done a reasonable job, it seemed—yet the results were disappointing. Not nearly enough showings for one thing. And even though the marketing materials seemed sufficient, the response had been, in the end, weak. What do you do now?

There are several guidelines to follow that will increase the likelihood of a timely sale. Of them, two are absolute musts. One of them is well known­­—mentioned in every credible source of residential real estate knowledge. The other is seldom mentioned.

That first one is the obvious, universally-recognized action item: double-check your asking price! If that amount is out of line, almost anything else you can do is likely to be wasted effort. If you require any future buyer to fall in love with your home to the extent that they will ignore better values that are on display elsewhere in the Highlands listings, you are probably living in, as the English like to say, “cloud cuckoo land.” The wished-for result could happen—but it’s probably not going to happen to you.

The rock-solid evidence points in only one direction: people who seriously comb the Highlands listings are planning to spend a large sum—so they will be noting and comparing prices. If your proposed number is far out of whack, they’re unlikely to waste a lot of time investigating the details. If they show up at all, it’s very likely to be out of curiosity (“what in the world are these people thinking?”). The agents who bring them, will probably have warned their clients about the asking price. This is not how to sell your house.

The second guideline is equally important, but seldom mentioned. It is to continue to use common sense. Do not, in other words, take leave of your senses. Don’t dummy-up all of a sudden. Do not abandon everything you ever learned about doing any kind of business.

The reason that this important guideline is seldom mentioned is because you would not think it’s necessary to put it into words. That’s not always the case when your home has not sold, because of what happens next. After a listing in the Highlands MLS has expired, a homeowner is likely to receive multiple solicitation letters that GUARANTEE that the sender’s company will be able to sell the property! They might as well write, “Take Leave of Your Senses! Sign here!”

The reason that such solicitation promises exist is the frustration level their authors impute to the recipient homeowners. That, plus the fact that they can actually promise to sell the property…but there’s a catch. It’s associated with the first guideline. Yes, they can sell anyone’s house…for an asking price that’s well below its market value. (So could anyone else). But that’s not what any homeowner, frustrated or not, is looking for when they list with a Highlands agent.

The cool, collected way to proceed is to decide whether the asking price is in line with the Highlands competition—then seek an agent who will bring new energy and integrity into play. This should definitely not be someone who guarantees anything that common sense tells you cannot be guaranteed. Or whose introduction is misleading.

If you find yourself in the process of re-evaluating your home’s selling strategy, I hope you’ll consider giving me a call to discuss a new, more promising plan of attack!

The Question: Is Now a Good Time to Sell a Sapphire Home?

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“Is now a good time to sell?”

A Sapphire home is never put up for sale on a whim. Although outside events can conspire to control the timing of that kind of major real estate venture, in most cases, the sale or purchase of a home happens on a timetable the Sapphire buyer or seller thoughtfully works out. That can be when a move will least interfere with everything else that’s going on (school and career schedules are often the ruling considerations). Or, it can be when surrounding conditions seem particularly auspicious.

The answer to the “is now a good time to sell” question looked to be a pretty firm ‘yes’ last fall for a number of reasons. The rebound in Sapphire home values had been underway for long enough that in many instances, previous high water marks had been equaled. Many who would have expected low appraisals as few years back could now anticipate friendlier results. The volume of sales seemed mainly limited by the number of homes being offered; and if fewer competing properties were available, all the better. In the background, good economic news began to arrive more frequently…

Also, there was one well-publicized additional factor that made it look as if the “good time to sell” might not last much longer. It was widely anticipated that action by the Federal Reserve Board to finally raise the Fed funds rate would rain on the Sapphire real estate parade, since that would certainly force banks to raise home loan interest rates.

Nationwide, those reasons had the expected result. Per Reuters in last Friday’s New York Times, apparently it had been a very good time to sell. “HOME RESALES RALLIED IN DECEMBER, AND PRICES ROSE AS WELL” was the headline describing last month’s activity. Unseasonably warm weather had helped, but “buyers rushing into the market in anticipation of higher mortgage rates” may have been more of a factor.

Sure enough, the Fed did raise the benchmark Fed funds rate, causing mortgage interest rates to…er…

That’s where the analyses, expectations, predictions, forecasts and conjecture fell to pieces. The banks were supposed to have to raise home loan rates to match, yet by last Friday they had shed another quarter of a percent. As the Times reported, “…rates on 30-year mortgages have dropped below 4%, and many mortgage experts expect them to stay below 4.25% this year.”

As the Sapphire real estate market prepares for the upcoming spring selling season, that unexpected boost seems to herald a lengthy extension of the extremely favorable borrowing environment. When Sapphire homeowners ask themselves “is now a good time to sell?”—the answer seems to have gone from a “yes” to “yes, indeed!”

If your response to the buying or selling question is tipping toward a ‘yes,’ now is the time to explore how your plans mesh with today’s Sapphire market. A good start: give me a call!

Buying Your First Highlands Home: More Doable Than You Think!

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For Highlands first home buyers who are of a certain age (for the moment let’s call that 40+ or so), the prospect of making such a prodigious commitment should be less intimidating than for the younger set.

You have been around for long enough to have seen the ups and downs of the economic cycles; most likely have had a number of different jobs with good and bad employers; may even have entered into the entrepreneurial arena yourself. You’ve also observed friends, relatives and colleagues who as they acquired their Highlands first homes, and have seen how they have fared as they enjoyed the benefits of homeownership and weathered the accompanying responsibilities. You know from observation that it doesn’t take spectacular luck or extraordinary business acumen to buy and own your first home—you’ve watched lots of regular people doing it all the time.

If you are part of the younger set, you may intuit the same thing—but haven’t yet seen it play out with your own eyes. Homeownership involves some dauntingly high numbers, after all. Add to that the current general sense of unpredictability about the world economy (who knows what’s going on in China?); the domestic business environment, jobs outlook, political scene (It’s an election year! An election year!)—maybe this is just the wrong time to make long term commitments…

If you belong to the more youthful group, there are some reassuring truths to make the first home buying plunge less worrisome. For one thing, if you’ve sometime sensed that the future is always unpredictable, you got that one right. When the economy is bright and looking brighter, those who have lived through the economic cycles are apt to be more skeptical than ever. It’s actually at the bottom of the economic cycle when the best buys are most likely to appear (though it’s never completely clear when that is!).

One thing that is completely reliable is the amount of money that Highlands mortgage lenders are contracting to charge you every month (that is, if you play it safe and stick to a non-adjustable home loan). And right now, interest rates are still almost unbelievably low. Historically speaking, this is an unusually advantageous time to be joining the ranks of Highlands first time home buyers. In an unpredictable world, that’s an attractive situation.

What every Highlands first home buyers should ask themselves before proceeding any further is how long they plan to live in their next home, and how much can they afford to pay each month. If the answer to the first question is one or two years (or “I don’t know”)—it’s almost certainly a better idea to keep renting for a while. Otherwise, take a look at your monthly budget (if you don’t have one, get out a pencil and paper and commit to one)—and come up with the number. After that’s done, you’re already on your way to getting serious about owning your first home. Then give me a call to see what the current town market has to offer.

Before long, you might be walking through the doorway of your first Highlands home!