By the end of last week, with world financial markets quavering and Wall Street chalking up the worst start for any year ever, you’d think that Highlands’s real estate outlook would be as worrisome as the rest of the economy’s.

Not necessarily.

For sure, there was enough to worry about. If world trade levels continue to unravel, it’s hard to see how the U.S. economy doesn’t head south—and that’s usually bad news for anyone trying to sell anything. For Highlands home owners planning to add their properties to this spring’s listings, seeing the stock market inaugurate the year with a full-blown correction would normally be unnerving.

Yet there were two outside factors that worked to counteract such a reaction—and at least one of them had not been widely anticipated.

The first factor is the textbook connection between financial assets (Wall Street’s stock in trade) and real goods (Highlands real estate is, if anything, the definition of ‘real’). It’s an inverse correlation. Not always, but often, the more insecure “securities” become, the more money tilts toward real assets: precious metals, commodities, real estate, agricultural land and oil. If for no other reason than the unanimous hand-wringing of the economic commentators, that should make holdings in property a more desirable place to park assets. At least in theory.

The second factor was the widely unforeseen one. By last Friday, Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham was writing about how investors were fleeing riskier assets “seeking safer haven” in the bonds that back mortgages. The result was one that affected Highlands mortgage interest rates—one of the key drivers of affordability for Highlands home buyers. “Mortgage rates surged lower,” Graham noted, “at the quickest pace of the year.”

Ever since the Federal Reserve’s decision to tiptoe into the first interest rate increase in many years, nearly everyone had predicted a slow rise in Highlands mortgage interest rates—one likely to continue throughout the rest of 2016. Instead, by the end of the week, commentators were reporting mortgage rates approaching 7-month lows! It really was a head-spinner: 7 months ago was long before the Fed raised that supposedly crucial Fed Funds rate. And now the commentators were casting doubt on when the next rate hike would take place…if at all…

Lest we fall into the trap of thinking we can predict what lies ahead, one distant mortgage branch manager, after being quoted as saying that the year has been “great for rates” so far, admitted “Things could change quickly in markets like this.” That’s for certain—but for the moment, Highlands mortgage interest rates are one strong factor that makes buying or selling a more doable prospect than would have seemed to be the case just a month ago— as well as a great reason to stop putting off that call to my office!

Whenever an unplanned and unwelcome financial situation develops, a Highlands mortgage-holder can find himself or herself in the onerous position of being unable to keep up with the monthly home loan payments. If the unhappy situation continues long enough, the likely result is a foreclosure or short sale. In addition to losing the property, the impact on personal credit then takes years to undo. That means it takes that much longer for a consumer to acquire a new home and start to build equity again.

Here as elsewhere, there were a raft of such Highlands mortgage defaults following the global financial meltdown. Even those who had no trouble servicing their area mortgages could have suffered when they found that falling property values prevented them from refinancing—even when the purpose was to improve their property. Although those events happened years ago, it’s only now that their aftereffects are finally working their way out of the system.

A recent article in NMP—the national Mortgage Professional’s magazine—delved into the changing status of those who lost homes in the turndown. The details they researched are interesting in themselves—details that are bound to have an impact on Highlands residential sales.

First off is the fact that enough time has elapsed for those who weathered a short sale or foreclosure to begin to return to eligibility. They’re called “Boomerang Buyers”—and nationwide, there are estimated to be 7,300,000 of them! In 2016 alone, more than a million will become eligible to return to the home-buying market. According to NMP, “they’re returning to the market in droves.” The hardest-hit states were Nevada, Florida and Illinois—but there are plenty of Boomerang Buyers scattered across the rest of the nation.

The improving mortgage eligibility landscape extends beyond those who suffered the actual loss of their homes. To the more than 7 million “distressed” homeowners whose properties are still underwater (those who owe more than market value), the government’s HARP 2 program is one possible remedy. Its guidelines encourage lenders to relax the loan-to-value caps that had prevented refinancing for many of those homeowners. Reports are that it has already resulted in an increase in such refinances.

Other program combinations are helping loan originators and Realtors® get more bank-owned homes back into homeowners’ hands. These are properties that make up the ‘shadow inventory’ of unsold homes, many of which have fallen into disrepair. Because of that, they’ve been difficult to finance—and therefore difficult to sell. Through FHA 203K and Fannie Mae’s Homestyle® renovation mortgages, more ambitious prospective owners—including investors—are discovering they now have mortgage options that can put those fixer-uppers within reach.

For those who have previously found it problematic to secure a Highlands mortgage with acceptable terms, it may be worth looking into today’s improved financing alternatives. Especially with mortgage interest rates at the levels we’re seeing this fall, what you find may be a pleasant surprise—one that puts you into the house of your dreams. Call me to discuss first steps!

The way the media treated last week’s federal funds rate announcement by the Federal Reserve Board was a convincing demonstration of how much importance is placed on that singular piece of the financial puzzle. That rate may not be directly tied to Highlands mortgage interest rates, but since it determines lenders’ borrowing costs, its effect is considerable.

For many years now, Highlands mortgage interest rates have been comfortably nestled near the bottom of their historical range. Many Highlands homeowners have enjoyed the resulting low monthly payments on their mortgages. Highlands home sellers have likewise benefitted from home loan interest rates that make their properties more affordable than would otherwise be the case.

Real estate repercussions are a major part of the reason that the Fed’s announcement, which came midday last Thursday, had the national media holding its collective electronic breath. With ten minutes to go, one cable network talking head could add little illumination. “Wall Street will be watching the announcement very closely,” was her understatement. Channel flipping with five minutes to go, viewers found the streaming banner at the bottom of one network trumpeting BREAKING NEWS…BREAKING NEWS… before the fact. On CNBC, “the most highly anticipated announcement in years” was awaited by four commentators who had the unhappy challenge of predicting the decision mere seconds before the fact. Above the ever-moving streams of real-time data (oil was down, the stock markets up) panelists chattered about China (“it’s big and mysterious”), inflation targets (“missed again”), and optimism (“a rate hike won’t hurt the economy, it will help”). Only if the Fed “saw something down the road,” it was agreed, would they not raise rates. Then, just 5 seconds to go…then-

The Fed left rates unchanged.

The most highly anticipated announcement in years was, er, the same one it’s been making since 2008.

Citing concerns over global this and financial that, the Fed said they were going to be monitoring them. The economy expanded at a moderate pace, and housing improved moderately, they said. But since global conditions might cause trouble…

The media’s excitement level flat-lined within minutes. “The markets are not panicking,” said a gentleman in a snappy suit. He looked irritated. “I blew it,” said another, who moments before had thrown in with the majority predicting a rate rise. “They cited uncertainty,” he frowned; then blurted, “The Fed is the biggest source of uncertainty!”

The stock markets didn’t react at all at first. Later, they closed mixed.

The next day, mortgage interest rates crept downward.

What seemed to be an excitement bust for the media was good news for many of the viewers. When the Fed funds rate continually hovers close to zero, there’s ample reason to suspect that Highlands mortgage interest rates might stay put for a while. TheStreet website later reported that they expected rates to rise a bit before year’s end. Given the recent record of expert predictions, it might be safer to stand behind one with a better chance of success: the next Fed announcement, I predict, will be the most anticipated announcement in years.

Meantime, if you have been mulling over whether to take advantage of the current balmy mortgage interest environment, I hope you’ll give me a call!

If you begin a search for a new home by going online to check out the Highlands listings, it’s likely that one of the first search criteria you enter will be the price range. After all, unless you are a virtual looky-loo who is just checking out how the other half lives, your budget will dictate which homes you seriously consider. If you are one of the more than two-thirds of us who will be counting on a loan to help finance that home purchase, the monthly payment amount is really what matters.

That’s why you don’t have to be a dedicated number-cruncher to be keenly interested in the direction Highlands mortgage interest rates are going to head. In fact, if you aren’t one of those whose idea of a good time includes working out spreadsheet calculations, it probably came as a shock the first time you realized how big a deal it is when Highlands mortgage interest rates notch up or down even a single percentage point. If you’ve never sat down to look at the numbers, please sit down before continuing…

For a quick example, suppose you were Average American Homebuyer taking advantage of an average American home purchase just this past July. Your family income was a bit higher than the median of $55,000—say, $60,000—so if you went with the lenders’ standard rule that 28% of income is the most a housing budget should allow, that meant $1,400 would be your maximum mortgage payment.

You found a terrific buy—a brand new home at exactly the median U.S. new home price, $286,000. You had saved up diligently, so the 20% down payment was available. That made enough of a dent in the sales price to qualify for the median mortgage interest rate, which was July’s 4.05%. Your annual taxes and bank-required insurance came to an annual $3,000, which added $250 a month). The whole situation made you more than median-ly happy, because it meant that your monthly mortgage payment on the home’s 30-year fixed rate mortgage came to only $1,350. That provides $50 of breathing room…

But remember, this quick example is one that required you to sit down. Sooooo — what’s the problem? It’s this talk about the Federal Reserve wanting to raise the federal funds target rate. That would have to trigger rises in the mortgage interest rates in Highlands (and everywhere else). In our quick example, taxes and insurance costs stay the same; but suppose the mortgage interest rate notches up one little percentage point, to just 5.05%? That’s still below the historical average, yet the same home—and the same loan except for that one percent raise—now requires a monthly $1,486 payment. That crosses the budget recommendations—and although some lenders would likely consider other factors that might make the loan possible, that single percentage point rise does wind up costing Average American Homebuyer more than $1,630 a year (and nearly $50,000 over the life of the loan).

The reality is that prudent home shoppers are currently able to consider properties at higher price ranges than will be the case after mortgage interest rates rise. For them, the market is literally wider than it will become later.

A further note: August saw Highlands mortgage interest rates fall below even July’s 4.05%. Another very good reason to give me a call!